Petrobras 2018 — Questão 17 · Gramática - Língua Inglesa

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A world in transformation:

World Energy Outlook 2017

The resurgence in oil and gas production from the

United States, deep declines in the cost of renewables

and growing electrification are changing the face of

the global energy system and upending traditional

5 ways of meeting energy demand, according to the

World Energy Outlook 2017. A cleaner and more

diversified energy mix in China is another major driver

of this transformation.

Over the next 25 years, the world’s growing

10 energy needs are met first by renewables and natural

gas, as fast-declining costs turn solar power into the

cheapest source of new electricity generation. Global

energy demand is 30% higher by 2040 — but still

half as much as it would have been without efficiency

15 improvements. The boom years for coal are over — in

the absence of large-scale carbon capture, utilization

and storage (CCUS) — and rising oil demand slows

down but is not reversed before 2040 even as

electric-car sales rise steeply.

20 __ WEO-2017, the International Energy Agency

(IEA)’s flagship publication, finds that over the next

two decades the global energy system is being

reshaped by four major forces: the United States

is set to become the undisputed global oil and gas

25 leader; renewables are being deployed rapidly thanks

to falling costs; the share of electricity in the energy

mix is growing; and China’s new economic strategy

takes it on a cleaner growth mode, with implications

for global energy markets.

30 __ Solar PV is set to lead capacity additions, pushed

by deployment in China and India, meanwhile in the

European Union, wind becomes the leading source of

electricity soon after 2030.

“Solar is forging ahead in global power markets

35 as it becomes the cheapest source of electricity

generation in many places, including China and

India,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director.

“Electric vehicles (EVs) are in the fast lane as a result

of government support and declining battery costs but

40 it is far too early to write the obituary of oil, as growth

for trucks, petrochemicals, shipping and aviation

keep pushing demand higher. The US becomes

the undisputed leader for oil and gas production for

decades, which represents a major upheaval for

45 international market dynamics.”

These themes — as well as the future role of

oil and gas in the energy mix, how clean-energy

technologies are deploying, and the need for more

investment in CCUS — were among the key topics

50 discussed by the world’s energy leaders at the IEA’s

2017 Ministerial Meeting in Paris last week.

This year, WEO-2017 includes a special focus on

China, where economic and energy policy changes

underway will have a profound impact on the

55 country’s energy mix, and continue to shape global

trends. A new phase in the country’s development

results in an economy that is less reliant on heavy

industry and coal.

At the same time, a strong emphasis on cleaner

60 energy technologies, in large part to address poor air

quality, is catapulting China to a position as a world

leader in wind, solar, nuclear and electric vehicles and

the source of more than a quarter of projected growth

in natural gas consumption. As demand growth in

65 China slows, other countries continue to push overall

global demand higher – with India accounting for

almost one-third of global growth to 2040.

The shale oil and gas revolution in the United

States continues thanks to the remarkable ability of

70 producers to unlock new resources in a cost-effective

way. By the mid-2020s, the United States is projected

to become the world’s largest LNG exporter and a net

oil exporter by the end of that decade.

This is having a major impact on oil and gas

75 markets, challenging incumbent suppliers and

provoking a major reorientation of global trade flows,

with consumers in Asia accounting for more than

70% of global oil and gas imports by 2040. LNG

from the United States is also accelerating a major

80 structural shift towards a more flexible and globalized

gas market.

WEO-2017 finds it is too early to write the

obituary of oil. Global oil demand continues to grow to

2040, although at a steadily decreasing pace – while

85 fuel efficiency and rising electrification bring a peak in

oil used for passenger cars, even with a doubling of

the car fleet to two billion. But other sectors – namely

petrochemicals, trucks, aviation, and shipping – drive

up oil demand to 105 million barrels a day by 2040.

90 __ While carbon emissions have flattened in recent

years, the report finds that global energy-related CO2

emissions increase slightly by 2040, but at a slower

pace than in last year’s projections. Still, this is far from

enough to avoid severe impacts of climate change.

Available at: < https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2017/november/a-world-in-transformation-world-energy-outlook-2017.html >. Retrieved on: 14 Nov. 2017. Adapted._

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